I had never witnessed anything like it. The day my friend and I walked from the Taj Mahal Palace to Marine Drive, I was told to follow her lead, for crossing the street in Mumbai was an art only the locals had mastered, but even she was overcome with doubt when we found ourselves at the braided intersection near the Mantralaya. There, an interlock: pedestrians hustling between moving scooters and cars and buses, sealing the gaps between the vehicles like rivulets flowing through cracks in arid soil. When they needed—no, wanted—to stop the traffic and move through, the pedestrians made eye contact with the drivers and held their hands out, turning every interaction into a micro negotiation between life and death. Honking, honking, so much honking: drivers at pedestrians then drivers at each other, a sonic assault spasming to the rhythm of this infrastructural chaos, of moments which appeared like stochastic events, without any precedent or pattern. I stood still, watching it all unfold, and then a thought crossed my mind—that I could not imagine a self-driving car in this place.
In July 2025, the political organization GrowSF ran a pulse poll on autonomous vehicle support. 67% respondents were in support of self-driving cars, and of those supporters, 30%—the largest subset by percentage—supported having such vehicles on San Francisco roads because they were “safer than human driving.” This struck me as both familiar and unusual. I heard the same reasoning whenever I had asked friends why we took Waymos in the city and yet, before self-driving cars became open to the public, I had never heard any of us talk much, if at all, about a desire to have something safer than a human behind the wheel. I had trouble imagining that, by extension of this poll, some 72,760 San Franciscans could be choosing a self-driving car for this reason. That a more intuitive reason—autonomous vehicles being safer than ride-shares—had been cited less frequently (16%) than autonomous vehicle services being dependable and efficient (18%) was also telling. Over the past two years of (enthusiastically) using Waymo in San Francisco, dependability and efficiency were almost never the reasons why I opted for a self-driving car: on occasion, the car didn’t show up, and almost always, the pickup time was three to five times longer compared to a rideshare. I didn’t doubt the poll numbers; they reflected what we told ourselves but I had started to wonder if what we told ourselves was merely a cognitive reframing.
Five years ago, I was visiting my family in Mostar and had to pay a visit to the local government office to submit some paperwork. I asked a friend to be my chaperone because I had lost the muscle needed to navigate the psychological labyrinth that was the bureaucracy in the Balkans. She worked as a legal assistant so she knew the unwritten customs of administrative undertakings: when to stand in line (never), who is allowed to cut you in line (a parent with a small child), which counter to approach to pay the fee (you just know), which counter to approach to submit the paperwork (you just know), which booth to approach to have the photo taken (you just know), when to crack a joke at the counter (you feel it), when to thank profusely at the counter (always). I remember looking around the office for signs, notices, instructions—anything, really—that codified the protocols my friend knew so well, but none were in sight. Something else happened during this visit: my dad told me about a “foreigner” who had recently driven through a one-way street in Mostar in the wrong direction. The people who had witnessed this happen were allegedly aghast. I asked my dad how the guy could have known the right direction; at the time, few if any streets in Mostar had one-way designation signs and, unless you were a local who had grown up and learned to drive in the city, Mostar’s streets read like an esoteric language. It took me a while to understand why he never answered my question. The answer was too obvious: it’s not that the guy should have known the right direction, it was that he should have known to look for a chaperone.
It was quiet. We were standing on the overpass and looking at the traffic below. I did not hear a honk since my friend and I had arrived in Singapore and I was, somehow, not nearly as attuned to the lack of noise as I was to the spaces between the vehicles. They moved in unison: never getting bigger and never getting smaller, at a pace so steady that I was convinced everyone was driving at the same speed. My friend had pointed out at breakfast to her friend—a native Singaporean who was showing us around the city—how orderly the culture seemed, in a way an inverse of India’s culture in which she grew up. Uncertainty was too much for Singaporeans, he said. Time was used to work and build wealth; predictability was essential to optimize for that goal. I got a hunch on the overpass that a traffic of only self-driving cars would likely look like the traffic in Singapore: cars spaced equally, gliding in silence at the same speed. An equilibrium.
The nominal GDP per capita of San Francisco had been $317,946 in 2023. That had been almost four times the value of Singapore’s GDP per capita that year, at $85,412. Singapore’s GDP, in turn, had been six times higher than Mostar’s GDP per capita, at $13,245, which in turn had been almost two times higher than Mumbai’s GDP per capita of $7,700. Which is to say it was the 72,760 people with $317,946 of goods and services produced per head who might have chosen a self-driving car because it was “safer than human driving” and it was the drivers with $85,412 of goods and services per head who drove in unison with an equal amount of space on the road and it was the chaperones with $13,245 of goods and services per head who could have told you which counter to approach and which direction to take on a one-way street and it was the pedestrians with $7,700 of goods and services per head who held their hands out and turned every interaction with drivers into a micro negotiation between life and death.
To live is to negotiate. Life is predicated on small but unending give-and-takes, what we perceive as social friction—the force in our cultural fabric generated by interdependency on one another, the force which opposes avoidance of reciprocity, that which injects a sliver of randomness into each day. It’s what’s there when we have to put in a customized and complicated food order at the counter, when we have to call customer service and gauge how we need to phrase our complaint, when we have to approach someone we’re interested in, when we have to sit in the car with a driver we likely don’t know who might be in the mood to talk or might be listening to music we don’t like or might not be okay with us talking on the phone. It’s what’s not there at the self-ordering kiosk machine, in the chat window with an agent who might or might not be human, in the left or right swipe on a dating app, in the backseat of a self-driving car. Flexibility, speed, ease, connection, safety—the promises on which technological advancements have arrived are seductive anchors, and I in no way mean to generalize that such advancements are pernicious or useless, but I wonder, now more often than before, if they are, at the same time, high-budget extensions of our tendency to reduce the emotional wear-and-tear bound to happen in a life of social friction. And if so, is it even fair to pass such a judgment? If each of us were in a system where a high value of goods and services produced per head could justify investments which reduced social friction, would not many of us give in? And yet, is it unfair to question our innate tendency to seek comfort whenever provided? If each of us lived in a state of persistently high social friction, would we all not come to see that life, however haphazard, could still happen?
References and Calculations
Number of San Franciscans who chose a self-driving car primarily because they believed it was safer than human driving
California Public Utilities Commission reported 1,016,546 Waymo rides in September 2025 across California (CPUC AV Program Quarterly Reporting; archived on Nov 24, 2025; monthly-level deployment dataset was downloadable via Reporting Period: July 1, 2025 – September 30, 2025 zip file). At the time of reporting, Waymo was the only carrier reporting the data about the operation of their vehicles in the Commission’s AV Passenger Service Deployment programs. Other carriers existed but were not widely deployed.
In November 2025, Waymo’s driverless deployments in California were fully operational in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles (Waymo map, archived on Nov 24, 2025); through June 2025, Waymo had reported 29.888M rider-only miles in San Francisco and 16.462M miles in Los Angeles, thus San Francisco accounted for roughly 65% of Waymo’s driverless miles in California (Waymo Safety Impact; archived on Nov 25, 2025). Also in June 2025, TechCrunch reported that Waymo had “600+ vehicles” in San Francisco and “400+ vehicles” in Los Angeles (Korosec, K. ‘Waymo robotaxis are pushing into even more California cities‘; archived on Nov 25, 2025); this could be interpreted that roughly 60% of Waymo’s California fleet was in San Francisco. While these figures (65% of miles in San Francisco, 60% of fleet in San Francisco) are not necessarily proportional to Waymo rides, I used the latter (more conservative) to make an assumption that roughly 60% of the 1,016,546 Waymo rides—about 609,930—in September 2025 across California were in San Francisco.
My own Waymo account history reported in the 2024 end-of-year summary that I was in the top 4% of users with a total of 22 trips. In 2025, through the end of November, I had a total of 67 trips, averaging roughly 6 rides per month. I assumed my behavior in 2025 still reflected the behavior of the top few percent of users (my ride frequency increased simply because Waymos became more common in San Francisco) and that most users in San Francisco averaged fewer monthly rides. Because I didn’t know the exact average number of Waymo rides per San Francisco user, I considered a range of plausible values instead of assuming a single number.
Based on general intuition about how often typical residents use the service, I assumed the average could reasonably fall anywhere between 1.5 and 4 rides per month. Rather than treat each value as equally likely, I assigned rough confidence levels to a few representative points in that range: 10% confidence that the average is as low as 1.5, 40% confidence around 2.5, 30% around 3, and 20% around 4 rides per month. These confidence levels simply reflect my judgment that mid-range values were more plausible than the extremes. Combining these possibilities into a single estimate gave a weighted average of 2.85 rides per user per month. With an estimated 609,930 Waymo rides in September and 2.85 rides per user per month, I estimated that roughly 214,000 San Franciscans used a Waymo that month.
I used Grow SF’s July 2025 survey (Results; archived on Dec 3, 2025)—the 30% of the 539 respondents in the sample who were classified as “supporters” of autonomous vehicles and cited “safer than human driving” as the reason for support—as a benchmark for a similar estimation. I assumed the 539 respondents were not perfectly representative of the estimated 214,000 San Franciscans who used a Waymo (by extension of Waymo being the only fully-deployed carrier in the city at the time, who used a self-driving car), and that anywhere between 20% and 50% of San Francisco Waymo users could have cited “safer than human driving” as their primary reason. I placed more weight on higher percentages (30–40%) than on the low end (20%), on the assumption that San Francisco Waymo (self-driving car) users are more likely than the general poll sample to cite safety as their main motivation. Specifically, I assigned 10% confidence to 20%, 35% to 30%, 35% to 40%, and 15% to 50%. This yielded a weighted average of 34% of San Francisco Waymo users who would have chosen Waymo (a self-driving car) primarily because it was safer than human driving. Applying this share to the estimated 214,000 users implied that roughly 72,760 San Franciscans chose Waymo (a self-driving car) primarily for safety.
GDP per capita numbers
The GDP per capita of San Francisco was calculated using the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s data: in 2023, the city’s GDP was reported at $263.1B ($263,108,633,000); the city’s population was 827.5K (827,526) residents (GDP; Resident Population; archived on Nov 14, 2025).
The GDP per capita of Singapore in 2023 was reported at $85,412 by the World Bank. (GDP per capita; archived on Nov 17, 2025). To validate the consistency of GDP per capita measurements across San Francisco (the St. Louis Fed data) and Singapore (the World Bank data), the GDP per capita of Singapore was also calculated by dividing the city-state’s GDP in 2023 by its total population that year. In 2023, the city-state’s GDP was reported at $505.4B ($505,439,514,078); the city-state’s population was 5.9M (5,917,648) residents (GDP; Population; archived on Nov 14, 2025 and Nov 16, 2025, respectively). Divided, the numbers produced $85,412, confirming the consistency of measurements.
The GDP per capita of Mostar was estimated as the midpoint between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s GDP per capita and Sarajevo’s GDP per capita. The underlying assumption was that Mostar’s GDP in 2023 had been lesser than that of Sarajevo, the country’s capital, but higher than the country’s average. First, the country’s GDP per capita in 2023 was reported at $8,663 by the World Bank (GDP per capita; archived on Dec 1, 2025). Second, Sarajevo’s GDP per capita in 2023 was calculated to be $17,828, derived by applying a conservative 2% growth rate over three years on the base of $16,800 GDP per capita, which was estimated by the Harvard Growth Lab (Metroverse data; archived on Nov 14, 2025), presumably for 2020 when the source also reported the city’s population. It’s worth noting, however, that the World Bank reported higher GDP per capita growth rates in the country for this period (GDP per capita growth rate; archived on Dec 1, 2025); these were not used because the base ($16,800) was already an estimation, hence the need for conservative growth rates. Finally, the GDP per capita of Mostar was calculated as the average between these two numbers—$8,663 and $17,828—at $13,245.
The GDP per capita of Mumbai was estimated by the Harvard Growth Lab (Metroverse data; archived on Nov 14, 2025) at $7,700. For context, the World Bank reported India’s GDP per capita in 2013 at $2,530 (GDP per capita; archived on Nov 17, 2025) and a 2024 report by the Economic Advisory Council to the PM reported the GDP of Maharashtra (the state in which Mumbai is) as percentage of India’s national GDP in 2023 at 13.3% (Report, archived on Nov 17, 2025). While not direct references to the $7,700 estimate from the Harvard Growth Lab, they provide some validity to the number, namely that it is higher than the country’s GDP per capita.



























































































